Arab Bank and Banque Centrale Populaire compete for a top 20 spot by loans

Competition for a place among the Arab world’s top 20 banks by loans is not determined solely by portfolio size, but also by each bank’s ability to expand its portfolio and maintain its position amid shifting competitive dynamics.

Arab Bank of Jordan and Morocco’s Banque Centrale Populaire are among the contenders, with relatively close loan portfolio sizes but divergent performances in the first half of 2026.

According to First Bank’s ranking of the top 100 Arab banks by loans as of end-June 2026, Arab Bank ranked 20th, while Banque Centrale Populaire came in 21st.

Arab Bank’s loan portfolio reached USD 38.29 bn at end-June 2026, up from USD 37.48 bn at end-2025, representing a growth rate of 2.2 per cent in the first half of the year.

In contrast, Banque Centrale Populaire’s loan portfolio declined to USD 36.60 bn at end-June 2026, from USD 36.72 bn at end-2025, marking a decrease of 0.3 per cent over the same period.

The divergence in the two banks’ performances during the first half of 2026 widened the gap between their loan portfolios to around USD 1.69 bn at end-June, compared with USD 760 mn at end-2025. This was driven by growth in Arab Bank’s loans, against a slight decline at Banque Centrale Populaire.

Despite Arab Bank’s stronger performance in the first half of this year, a longer-term comparison gives Banque Centrale Populaire an advantage in terms of loan growth.

The Moroccan bank recorded a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7 per cent over the last three years, compared with 5.5 per cent for Arab Bank, based on the period from end-2022 to end-June 2026.

This divergence highlights the different growth trajectories of the two banks across the two periods. Arab Bank outperformed its rival in portfolio expansion during the first half of 2026, while Banque Centrale Populaire recorded a higher growth rate over the longer term.

The distinction is important, as a higher CAGR does not necessarily translate into portfolio growth in every financial period, with results influenced by lending activity at each stage.

Meanwhile, Arab Bank’s growth in the first half of the year has strengthened its competitive position, although it needs to sustain its expansion to maintain its lead in portfolio size.

Projections suggest that the gap between the two banks could widen by end-2026 if each maintains the same pace of growth or decline in the second half as recorded in the first six months. Under this scenario, Arab Bank’s loans could rise to around USD 39.13 bn, while Banque Centrale Populaire’s portfolio could fall to USD 36.47 bn.

Although this scenario would strengthen Arab Bank’s position, its ability to retain a place among the Arab world’s top 20 banks by loans will also depend on the performance of competing banks ranked close to it.

For Banque Centrale Populaire, the prospects of improving its ranking will depend on restoring growth in its loan portfolio and narrowing the gap with its rival.

These projections remain hypothetical, as the final year-end rankings will depend on the actual balances recorded during the second half of 2026.