«The Big Numbers Race»: Two Chinese giants compete for leadership of the global banking sector

At the very top of the global banking hierarchy—where numbers are transformed into instruments of real influence—a new episode of «The Big Numbers Race» examines the battle for leadership between the two largest banks in the world by total assets, in a scene that clearly reflects the shift of global financial gravity toward the Chinese dragon.

Sitting atop the global banking throne in terms of total assets is «Industrial and Commercial Bank of China» (ICBC), a traditional institutional model that has successfully leveraged its massive balance sheet and wide geographic footprint to reinforce its international influence and stability.

Ranking second globally, «Agricultural Bank of China» has firmly established itself as one of the core pillars of the global financial system, with its vast financial portfolio playing a pivotal role in financing the Chinese economy and strengthening its position within the international banking equation.

According to the banks’ disclosed financial statements, ICBC’s total asset portfolio reached approximately USD 7.42 tn by end-September 2025, compared with USD 6.76 tn for the Agricultural Bank of China over the same period.

At the deposit level, ICBC recorded total deposits of around USD 5.24 tn by end-September 2025, versus USD 4.50 tn for the Agricultural Bank of China at the close of the same period.

On the credit front, ICBC’s net customer loan portfolio amounted to approximately USD 4.16 tn by end-September 2025, compared with USD 3.65 tn for the Agricultural Bank of China during the same period.

Despite ICBC maintaining absolute leadership in terms of size, a dynamic comparison reveals that the Agricultural Bank of China has outperformed in terms of growth momentum over the past three years—specifically from end-2022 through end-September 2025—recording total asset growth of approximately 37.5%, compared with 29.2% for ICBC over the same period.

This strong performance by the Agricultural Bank of China contributed to narrowing the asset gap between the two banks from USD 823.67 bn at end-2022 to USD 657.06 bn by end-September 2025.

At the deposit level, the Agricultural Bank of China continued to outperform in terms of overall growth rate, with its deposit portfolio increasing by approximately 23.7% over the past three years, compared with growth of 21% for ICBC.

However, despite the Agricultural Bank of China’s superior growth momentum, this did not translate into a material reduction in the size gap between the two banks’ deposit bases. The deposit gap widened from around USD 688.47 bn at end-2022 to nearly USD 736 bn by end-September 2025.

This reflects the sheer scale of ICBC’s historically accumulated deposit base, as the Agricultural Bank of China’s growth came from a relatively smaller deposit base and was therefore insufficient to offset the existing size differential.

On the lending side, the Agricultural Bank of China continued to outperform in terms of overall growth rate, with its net customer loan portfolio rising by approximately 32.8% over the past three years, compared with growth of 27.1% for ICBC during the same period.

This relatively stronger performance was reflected—albeit modestly—in the credit gap between the two banks, which narrowed to approximately USD 507.78 bn by end-September 2025, compared with around USD 523.41 bn at end-2022.

In terms of profitability, the balance tilts in favor of ICBC in absolute earnings, as it generated net profits of USD 38.19 bn during the first 9 months of 2025, recording a return on average assets (ROAA) of 0.72% and a return on average equity (ROAE) of 8.97% over the same period.

By comparison, the Agricultural Bank of China reported net profits of USD 31.23 bn during the first 9 months of 2025, with a ROAA of 0.66% and a ROAE of 9.57% during the same period. This highlights a divergence in balance-sheet management philosophy, with ICBC focusing on maximizing returns on assets, while the Agricultural Bank of China prioritizes enhancing returns to shareholders’ equity.

The financial indicators of both banks confirm that competition between the two Chinese giants is no longer confined to defending balance-sheet leadership, but has evolved into a broader contest of operational momentum and performance models. While ICBC continues to consolidate its dominance through an exceptionally large balance sheet, the Agricultural Bank of China is strengthening its position by accelerating growth and gradually narrowing gaps in assets and lending.

As these trends persist, the global banking leadership map remains poised for potential reshaping over the medium term, depending on each bank’s ability to convert its relative advantage—whether in size or growth—into a long-term structural edge within the global financial system.