First Index 2026 Outlook..Relative Stability Expected in Saudi Banks’ Rankings within First Bank’s Top 100 Arab Banks List

In an effort to anticipate the competitive landscape of the Arab banking sector in 2026, «First Bank» has prepared forward-looking estimates for the rankings of Saudi banks within the list of the largest 100 Arab banks, based on the growth trends achieved by these institutions in recent years and their ability to continue expanding their asset bases.

The projections were based on calculating the Compound Annual Growth Rate «CAGR» for each bank during the 2022–2025 period and then applying this rate to the asset values recorded at the end of 2025 to estimate their positions by the end of 2026.

This model assumes that historical growth trends will continue at similar rates throughout 2026, while recognizing that exceptional developments or unusual performance fluctuations could affect the accuracy of the projections for certain banks.

The forecast results indicate a state of relative stability among the ten Saudi banks included in the ranking, with five banks expected to maintain their current positions without change, while the other five may experience limited movements of only one or two places, either upward or downward.

Among the banks projected to retain their rankings, Al Rajhi Bank is expected to remain the fifth-largest Arab bank, with assets rising to approximately 309 USD bn by the end of 2026, compared with 278.15 USD bn at the end of 2025.

Saudi Awwal Bank «SAB» is also expected to maintain its position as the 11th-largest Arab bank, with assets growing to around 137 USD bn by the end of 2026, compared with 121.16 USD bn in 2025.

Likewise, Banque Saudi Fransi «BSF» is projected to retain 17th place among Arab banks, with total assets reaching approximately 91 USD bn by the end of 2026, compared with 82.38 USD bn at the end of 2025.

Arab National Bank «ANB» is also expected to maintain its 20th-place ranking, supported by an increase in assets to approximately 82 USD bn by the end of 2026, compared with 75.02 USD bn in 2025.

Meanwhile, Bank AlJazira is forecast to remain in 30th place among Arab banks, with assets increasing to approximately 49 USD bn by the end of 2026, compared with 44.24 USD bn at the end of 2025.

As for the banks expected to record limited movements within the ranking, the data suggest that Saudi National Bank «SNB» may slip to fourth place by the end of 2026 from third place at the end of 2025, while its assets are projected to reach approximately 350 USD bn, compared with 322.61 USD bn.

Riyad Bank is expected to advance to ninth place among Arab banks from tenth place, with assets rising to around 157 USD bn by the end of 2026, compared with 138.50 USD bn at the end of 2025.

Similarly, Alinma Bank is projected to move up to 15th place among Arab banks from 16th place, supported by an increase in assets to approximately 96 USD bn by the end of 2026, compared with 82.93 USD bn at the end of 2025.

The Saudi Investment Bank «SAIB» is also expected to climb two positions to rank 27th among Arab banks, compared with 29th place in 2025, with assets projected to reach approximately 53 USD bn by the end of 2026, versus 46.05 USD bn at the end of 2025.

On the other hand, Bank Albilad is forecast to decline to 29th place from 28th place, despite its assets being expected to increase to around 51 USD bn by the end of 2026, compared with 46.12 USD bn at the end of 2025.

Overall, the projections indicate that Saudi banks will continue to occupy leading positions within the ranking of the largest 100 Arab banks by the end of 2026, supported by expected asset growth and expanding business volumes.

Although some banks may experience limited ranking shifts, the broader picture reflects a high degree of relative stability, underscoring the strength of the Saudi banking sector and its solid presence within the Arab banking landscape.