«First Bank» Analysis.. Expected Changes in the Ranking of the Top 20 Arab Banks by the End of 2026

As part of its forward-looking assessment of the Arab banking sector, «First Bank» has developed an analytical model to forecast the ranking of the Top 20 Arab banks by the end of 2026, amid ongoing competition among regional lenders to expand their asset bases and strengthen their market positions.

The projections were based on calculating each bank's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the 2022–2025 period and applying that growth rate to the bank's total assets at the end of 2025 to estimate its asset size by the end of 2026.

The model assumes that historical growth trends will continue at the same pace throughout 2026. However, it also recognizes that exceptional events or unexpected fluctuations in performance could affect the accuracy of the forecasts for some banks.

The results indicate a high degree of stability within the ranking of the Top 20 Arab banks, According to the model, 11 banks are expected to retain their current positions compared with the 2025 ranking, while the anticipated changes are limited to a small number of position swaps among banks with relatively similar asset sizes.

At the top of the ranking, First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) is projected to maintain its position as the largest Arab bank by the end of 2026, while Qatar National Bank (QNB) is expected to remain in second place, unchanged from the 2025 ranking.

The most notable movement within the top five is expected to occur between the third and fourth positions, with Emirates NBD projected to advance to third place, while Saudi National Bank (SNB) is expected to slip to fourth place. Al Rajhi Bank is forecast to retain its fifth-place ranking.

The remainder of the top ten is also expected to remain relatively stable. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) is projected to hold sixth place, followed by the National Bank of Egypt (NBE) in seventh, and the National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) in eighth.

Meanwhile, Riyad Bank is expected to move up to ninth place, while Kuwait Finance House (KFH) is projected to decline to tenth, compared with the 2025 ranking.

Within the 11th to 20th positions, somewhat more noticeable—though still limited—changes are expected.

 SAB is forecast to remain 11th, Dubai Islamic Bank (DIB)12th, and Mashreq Bank13th.

Attijariwafa Bank is projected to advance to 14th place, up from 15th, while Alinma Bank is expected to climb to 15th, from 16th.

Conversely, Banque Misr is forecast to decline to 16th place, compared with 14th in the 2025 ranking.

The projections also indicate that Banque Saudi Fransi will retain 17th place, while Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB) is expected to rise to 18th, overtaking Arab Bank (Jordan), which is projected to slip to 19th, Arab National Bank (ANB) is expected to maintain its 20th-place position.

Overall, the findings suggest that the ranking of the largest Arab banks is likely to remain broadly stable through the end of 2026. The anticipated changes are largely confined to limited position swaps among similarly sized institutions, while the balance of power at the top of the Arab banking sector is expected to remain fundamentally unchanged.